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Maisel Report-2010-3rd quarter in review

2010 was a crazy year. We have seen the highest level of unemployment in 25 years in the Chicago area, the lowest mortgage interest rates in 40+ years, a tax credit to new home buyers that influenced demand and expired on April 30th, and home prices that have seen 10-30% declines.

 

Active Listings:
Data from the MLS shows that in the 3rd quarter of this year, there were 43,723 listings, which is the lowest third quarter total since we had 40,618 listings in 2006. In between, there was an increase in listings in 2008 and then a slight decline in 2009 with stabilization in 2010. It seems as though the future would suggest this will continue.

Under Contract:
In the third quarter of 2010, there were 9,222 homes under contract, which is slightly less than the 9,970 homes under contract in 2009. Trends suggest a somewhat stable trend.

Sales Volume:
Data taken from the Multiple Listing Service indicates that for the 3rd quarter of 2010, there were 48,570 homes under contract, which is the most since the 3rd quarter of 2007 when it was 49,482 homes. It appeared that the spring tax credit influenced a stronger spring market, and it followed with a bit of a “hangover” effect, then there was a slowdown in the second half of the spring into the summer.

Months Supply of Inventory:
The third quarter of 2010 had a 9.08 month supply which is the lowest third quarter since 2006. Since the height of 13.54 month supply of third quarter 2008, there has been a steady decline ever since which would suggest a downward trend in the inventory levels.

Mean Sales Price:
From 2005-2007, we saw upward trends of pricing and then there has been a decline over the next 10 quarters, which totaled about 34%. In 2010, the market increased almost 3% and then fell 2%. The trend moving forward shows modest increases and decreases in prices due do the effect distressed market sales (foreclosures, short sales, court-ordered sales, etc) have on these numbers.

Lincoln Park:

Four bedroom homes in Lincoln Park that have sold in the past 9 months had an average selling price of $1,286,000. On average, these homes sold for 90% of the original list price to the final sales price. Average market time was 185 days.
Two bedroom condos had an average sales price of $334,581, with home selling for 92% of the original listing price to the final sales price. Average market time was 147 days.

Lakeview:
Four bedroom homes in Lakeview that have sold in the past 9 months had an average selling price of $1,048,536. On average, they sold for 89% of the original list price and were on the market for 169 days. Two bedroom condos had an average selling price of $289,000, sold for 93% of the original list price and were on the market for an average of 133 days.

Edgewater-Uptown:
During the last nine months, the average sales price for a four bedroom home was $663,000, selling for 88% of the original list price and had a market time of 144 days.
Two bedroom condos had an average sales price of $197,127, sold for 91% of the original list price and had an average market time of 159 days.

River North-Old Town-Mag Mile:
Average sales price for four bedroom homes were $1,396,300, sold 83% of the original list price and took an average of 319 days to sell. Conversely, two bedroom condos sold for $397,456, sold for 94% of original list price and took an average of 152 days to sell.

Bucktown-Wicker Park-West Town-Ukranian Village
Average sales prices of four bedroom single family homes were $736,510, selling for 89% of original list price and 155 days of market time. Two bedroom condos sold for an average price of $308,118 selling for 93% of original list price and 126 days on the market.

Glencoe/Wilmette/Northbrook/Deerfield/Highland Park:
Sales prices of from these five communities saw an average sales price of $778,000 for a four bedroom home, selling for 90% of list price to sales price and had average market times of 145 days.

Remember, the real estate market is mostly a local one. The demand for housing in more desirable locations will continue to be a dominating factor in a buyers decision making and will eventually drive up prices as supply diminishes. I continue to believe that the worst is behind us and that the market will continue to improve as we move into the spring of 2011.

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